2008-12-01telegraph.co.uk

In the 1930s, it was not obvious to people living through debt deflation that their world was coming apart. The crisis came in pulses, each followed by months of apparent normality – like today.

Great essay, though I do think it contained some famous last words:

Investors are retreating into 3-month US Treasury bills – the ultimate safe-haven. The yield has fallen to 0.02pc, less than zero after costs. You pay Washington to guard your money.

Indeed, that has worked well for over 50 years. But that kind of mindless reaction seems to be precisely what is being challenged. On this thread, Ambrose continues:

If in doubt, cleave to those countries with a deeply-rooted democracy, a strong sense of national solidarity, a tested rule of law – and aircraft carriers. The US and Britain do not look so bad after all.

Head to the places from where the collapse originates? That could only possibly be seen as a good idea because the market has traded in the dollar's favor for a few months. Can anyone argue that that is likely to continue??

I'm not convinced, so my safe haven is no country: it is gold and silver.



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