The mystery of weak US productivity (WHEREIN ED LUCE SUBTLY TOUTS UBI HELICOPTER-MONEY)

The latter certainly fits with the experience of most of the US labour force. It is no coincidence that since 2004 a majority of Americans began to tell pollsters they expected their children to be worse off -- the same year in which the internet-fuelled productivity leaps of the 1990s started to vanish. Most Americans have suffered from indifferent or declining wages in the past 15 years or so. A college graduate's starting salary today is in real terms well below where it was in 2000. For the first time the next generation of US workers will be less educated than the previous, according to the OECD, which means worse is probably yet to come. Last week's US productivity report bears that out.

... the US and most of the west are stuck with a deepening productivity crisis. The slowdown has one manifest effect and a seductive remedy. The first, an embittered backlash against business as usual, is already upon us. Witness Donald Trump's ascent...

Imagine the US takes much the same course in the next ten years as it has over the last. That would mean a further corrosion of US infrastructure, continued relative decline in the quality of public education, and atrophying middle workforce skills. It would also hasten the breakaway of urban America's most gilded enclaves, further enriching the educated elites. It could also, quite possibly, trigger a breakdown in democratic order. If you think Mr Trump's rise is ominous, picture America after another decade like the last.

Which brings me to the remedy: a universal basic income. UBI has several plus points. It draws support from all parts of the ideological spectrum: libertarian and socialist alike. It would replace today's messy overlap of benefits and do away with the humiliation of proving your eligibility to federal bureaucrats. Most important of all, however, it would buy a measure of social peace. Today's stagnation may be temporary or lasting. We have no way of telling. Common sense dictates we must act as though it is here to stay.