2016-07-21mauldineconomics.com

Both candidates for [U.S.] president have increasingly grandiose visions for the sorts of things government should do, and I don't see any scenario in 2017 where the deficit doesn't widen sharply.

... the debt problem is most acute in Japan, obviously, where debt to GDP is now about 240%. Japan was insolvent at a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120%, so the rest is just gravy... What if the Ministry of Finance simply defaults to the BOJ?... This is in fact being seriously considered... Think about it: back when we started doing QE, people were freaking out about what would happen when the Fed sold bonds back into the market. That was never going to happen--that was never the intent at all.

...

So if debt doesn't matter and we're going to build roads and trains and bridges to nowhere, it means that shorting this market is a huge waste of time. It will end badly someday, but keep in mind that people have been predicting disaster for the last 45 years, when Nixon took us off gold. We could have 15 more years of this crap... The obvious trade here is gold...''



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