2013-06-26jutiagroup.com

If you don't have income growth or credit availability, that takes a toll on consumer confidence. Usually consumer sentiment follows the tone of the popular press on the economy, and monthly movement in the different consumer measures can be quite volatile. Despite the happy hype of recent headline monthly gains in consumer confidence, the news doesn't have much relevance to our being out of economic trouble. Consumer confidence plunged starting in 2006 and we've been bottom-bouncing ever since. Current levels are consistent with numbers seen during the depths of the worst recessions in the post-World War II era. We're still at recession levels in consumer confidence; those measures have not shown the full recovery that has been reported in the GDP.

Official GDP reporting shows that the economy turned down right after the end of 2007, plunged through 2008 into the middle of 2009, and then started turning higher and has continued higher ever since. If you believe the GDP numbers, the economy fully recovered as of the fourth quarter of 2011, regaining its prerecession highs, and has continued to expand ever since. No other economic series confirms that pattern.



Comments: Be the first to add a comment

add a comment | go to forum thread