2016-05-16wsj.com

The dollar fell Monday as investors remain skeptical that the Federal Reserve will move to raise interest rates soon despite upbeat economic data.

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Strong U.S. retail sales and employment reports lifted the dollar in recent weeks. But the data has done little to change investors' pessimistic outlook on the prospect for interest-rate increases.

Federal-funds futures, used by investors and traders to place bets on central-bank policy, show that the odds for a rate increase at the Fed's June meeting are only 4%, while the chances of a rate increase at the December meeting are 59%, according to CME Group.

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"Investors would be more confident of the durability of the dollar's recovery if it were supported by changing expectations for higher U.S. interest rates," analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman wrote in a research note. "Stronger economic data alone seems insufficient. "

Also, the "strong economic data" is a fraud, and everyone knows it (even if only subconsciously)....



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