3) While creditors have complained that Puerto Rico isn't doing enough, I worry that there is still too much consolidation too fast: Puerto Rico's output is projected to fall by another 10 percentage points over the next five years, which would make Puerto Rico's ten year economic contraction as deep as that experienced by Greece.

Sadly, this is a realistic outcome if you combine five to six percentage points of consolidation, a multiplier of 1.5 (especially as much of the consolidation is offsetting a fall in federal funding) and negative trend growth. There is a real risk that the coming contraction generates further outmigration, undermining the basis for any eventual recovery. Puerto Ricans are not required to stay on on-island. A shrinking population ultimately means a shrinking tax base.


Basically, Puerto Rico tried to avoid a draconian consolidation after its 2007 slump through running down pension assets (and for a while running up debt) and by taking advantage of Obama era policy changes--but now has run out of rope.

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