2008-05-31 — econbrowser.com
I'd like to remind readers that GDP is a series subject to a lot of revisions (and in any case, NBER looks at a lot of other series). To that end, I depict below what we thought GDP was doing at the end of May 2001 ... Note that even at the end of July 2001, we still thought 2001Q1 growth was positive, and thought the same of 2001Q2 as well...
Look at the second chart in this. Part of what is going on here isn't malicious: it's just that optimistic appraisals of the current business situation gets baked into the GDP numbers, and then gradually unrolled as bankruptcies and write-downs happen.
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