2015-10-26nytimes.com

Baseline growth is essentially zero. Gross domestic product is the same size it was in the mid-1990s, in part because the work force is shrinking. So where a faster-moving economy might simply lose momentum in response to headwinds, Japan's goes into reverse.

So far, Mr. Abe's policies have done little to change the dynamic.... [yet] economists are betting that the Bank of Japan, which has been pumping vast amounts of money into the economy by buying up government debt, will pull the trigger on more stimulus at its next board meeting on Friday....

Mr. Abe has continued to make ambitious promises. Last month, he set a goal of increasing Japan's nominal economic output to 600 trillion yen by 2020 or soon after -- an increase of about 20 percent from the current level. He gave little indication of how an economy that has not grown in two decades could expand by a fifth in just a few years. Audacious pronouncements have been a hallmark of Abenomics from the start -- part of what Mr. Kuroda has described as an effort to dispel Japan's "deflationary mind-set." But after three mostly lackluster years, its architects' credibility is being questioned by many, including their natural supporters in the business elite.



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