2017-02-13cnbc.com

As Yellen gives testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday, the first point of interest will be whether Yellen provides any more guidance on the possibility of a March rate hike. Markets have so far written off the chance, pricing in just an 18 percent probability of a quarter-point move, according to Thomson Reuters.

But many economists say that's too low, given that Yellen is likely to signal that the Fed is close to meeting its inflation and employment goals set by Congress.

The trouble for the market is this: Can Yellen hit just the right tone where she claws back some flexibility for the Fed to hike in March and yet not signal that it's a done deal? If so, Yellen will seek just the right hawkish language to bring that probability to just about 50 percent so she can leave it to the Federal Open Market Committee to make the actual decision.



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