Why a Housing Recovery Is Far Off

"... even without further movement in nominal mortgage rates or the pace of home-price gains, sales must fall another 10% to 15% to match historical norms. But if our projections for home prices are correct, and the rate of increase almost hits zero this year, home sales will slip by an additional 20% to 25%. That would make the total decline almost 40% from their mid-2005 peak." Also: "Bulls have recently been cheered by rising mortgage applications, but the second chart shows that these have become an unreliable indicator. ... In this cycle, the gap is bigger than in the past, and it probably will widen."