Morgan Stanley is now Forecasting a Recession in 2008

As per usual, "official" recession calls are a joke, with various recession signals having started way back in 2006. Here's another piece (MSM), and some key quotes:

Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street bank to warn that it is may now be too late to stop a recession, though most have shifted to an ultra-cautious stance in recent weeks.

The bank at first treated the August crunch as a "mid-cycle correction", much like the financial storm after Russia's default in 1998. But the collapse of the US commercial paper market has now continued for seventeen weeks, suggesting a "fundamental deleveraging of the banking system."

Mr Berner - known at Morgan Stanley as the "resident bull"- is one of the most closely watched analysts on Wall Street. While he began to turn bearish last April as the credit markets turned nasty, the latest report is written in tones that may rattle the fast-diminishing band of optimists.