2008-12-06guardian.co.uk

There will be further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve together with other so-called "unconventional" measures to drive down long-term interest rates. There will be suggestions that America can't wait for Barack Obama to arrive in the White House for the $500bn fiscal stimulus the president-elect is planning.

We echo the sentiment about "freefall". The bad numbers are unappreciated in their severity due to retroactive revisions for previous periods -- in other words, "things were worse than they were." And things now will likely "be worse than they are," when we look back.

Mish has further illuminating comments on the numbers.

The point the author makes about the lack of "social safety nets" in the US, however, is highly debatable. While we don't have a generous safety net as far as structural policy, we've already raised the unemployment insurance period twice (three times?) during this crisis and there's no reason this cannot be continued. The US can actually respond quite drastically in emergency periods and has a history of doing so. Arguably this is better than the European method of having a specific promise of out-of-work support in place, because it provides the support when it is needed, and doesn't encourage social loafing when it is not needed.

The problem, of course, is that the US is in deep debt and deficit, so all the increases in social support and "bailout" spending simply make financing pressures more severe.



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