2009-05-08blogspot.com

"The results cannot and will not provide "considerable comfort" because the stress test parameters were a cakewalk. In the so called "adverse scenario" the Fed concluded unemployment would peak at 10.3% at the end of 2010 and GDP would fall 3.3% this year. I think we see the unemployment rate at 9.8% by August and 11% by the end of 2009. The adverse scenario is my baseline scenario. The results are skewed from the start as the baseline scenario is pure fantasy."



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