" I think one needs to look at a number of factors including GDP, unemployment numbers, duration of unemployment, consumer spending, asset prices, housing prices, consumer prices, treasury yields, wages, consumer spending, bank failures, foreclosures, etc, to make a reasonable determination. Here's the deal."


catherine at 13:39 2009-09-09 said:
""The US is in the midst of the steepest decline in home price on record.

Short-term treasury yields went negative and are still close to zero. Long-term treasury yields hit record lows.

Foreclosures hit record highs.

The stock market had the biggest collapse since the Great Depression.

U-6 unemployment is a whopping 16.8% and still rising.

The PPI (producer price index) had the biggest drop in 59 years. The CPI is at -1.3% is declining at the fastest pace since 1950 according to government calculations. The real CPI by my calculations is -6.2% (See What's the Real CPI? for details).

U-6 does not count recent graduates looking for a job but living at home in search of one. It also does not count self-employed real estate agents who have not made a sale in a year. However it does count all the "self-employed" selling trinkets on Ebay making $200 a month or less. I do not have totals for that, but structural unemployment plus structural underemployment is likely North of 20%.

One does not see any of that that in the first chart. Nor does one see falling wages, the likelihood of Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade, massive bank failures, Food-Stamps Reach 33.8 Million in April, 5th Consecutive Monthly Record, or the ongoing commercial real estate bust with One Sixth Of All Construction Loans In Trouble.

These are characteristics of a depression, not a recession. It's time to stop pretending otherwise.""




MortgageDrummer at 15:59 2009-09-09 said:
I think it's time we all go buy stock in pharmacuticals (sp).. :? 8) :lol:

you know Zoloft, Paxell, those anti-depressant's :wink:

it's the only thing making a profit. . . :shock:

I guess if we get all medicated up. . . it will be easier for them to bend us over. . . if you kow what I mean? :evil: :cry: Permalink

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