From Bear to Bear

`` The $2 Trillion of federal Credit over the past year may have stabilized national income, but it has not reflated home prices or rejuvenated household and mortgage Credit growth. I don’t expect another $2 Trillion to have a much bigger impact, creating a backdrop where the lack of a self-reinforcing private-Credit growth dynamic creates acute systemic vulnerability to any withdrawal of massive federal government spending. Moreover, any backup in market yields – perhaps in anticipation of Federal Reserve “exit strategies” – would weigh heavily on private-sector Credit recovery.''