NBER Likely to say "Recession Ended" July 2009; Assessing the Real Time Probability US Back in Recession

By a somewhat-less-bogus methodology, the "recession probability" as of June 2010 is rising, now at 25%. Translation? It's looking more likely we are in or going down into the second "trough" of a multiple-dip recession (which basically means the entire extended period can be described as a "depression").