Relevant:
- Existing Home Sales Fall 2.6% to 4.86 Million in June
- U.S. new-home sales climb to best level since late 2007
- Mr. Mortgage: July Home Sale Surge, But Market Worsens (Existing Home Sales Preview)
- Existing Homes: Months of Supply vs. Real Prices
- Historical Housing Graphs: Months of Supply, Sales and Inventory
2010-09-09 — calculatedriskblog.com
Interesting; good charts. Looks like around 4 months supply is a bull market and above 8 definitely a bear market for existing home sales (we are heading above 8 again now); 6-7 months of supply seems "normal" for new homes.
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catherine at 20:48 2010-09-10 said:
ahem...........in our calculation for supply of homes we are using old data, old employed numbers, old migration numbers........ people wanted to own 2 even 3 years ago, now doubt is infecting everything, doubts about employment, doubts about taxes, the buyer group is shrinking while the home supply is growing. Todays's 8 months supply is not like 2 years ago 8 months supply. We are headed into the winter, always the worst mortgage writing months for me out of the year. So 8 months supply today (same numbers - could be a 16 month supply by next year) these 'real' not 'estimated' unemployment numbers have to turn around and turn around big for housing to fix itself........ Permalinkadd a comment | go to forum thread
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