Puplava: The Dollar Is Topping; Inflation Now Controls Biz Cycle

``While the federal funds rate used to lead overall economic activity, it is inflation now that leads economic activity and with the USD playing a pivotal role in inflation the USD Index provides a good lead time for U.S. economic activity as measured by the ISM Manufacturing Index. Shown below is the USD Index advanced six months relative to the ISM, which has had an excellent forecasting record for future trends in the ISM index.''