2012-05-05blogspot.com

Since mid-2010, precisely the time millions of US citizens used up all of their 99 week of unemployment insurance, disability claims have risen by 2.2 million. Those on disability are not counted in the workforce and are not considered unemployed.

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Based on current trends, 7 percent of the nonelderly adult population could be receiving disability benefits by 2018, Richard Burkhauser and Mary Daly wrote in the spring issue of the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. That's two years after the SSDI program will run through its trust fund, according to an April report by the Social Security trustees. Costs Increase

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Is there anyone who thinks disability fraud is less than 10%? If not, then the unemployment rate would be at least 9.9% assuming those in fraudulent claims started looking for work.

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Notice the jump in claims after the recession was allegedly long-over. The timing coincides with unemployment benefits expiring at 99 weeks.

Apt observations, but we're not sure we'd classify the increase as "out and out fraud". Indeed, we can turn around the questioning on Mish, and ask "how likely is it that everyone in the recent increase in SSDI is committing fraud?" (this is what would be required for fraud to be the "marginal" factor). Truth is, people may have underlying disabilities but not claim SSDI (even though they could qualify) because there is an adequate-paying job available. When such jobs disappear, people may seek applicable forms of welfare, not because they want to, but because they have to.

So in reality, the best "solution" is to implement macro-economic reforms that will allow the economy to recover and start growing again.


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