April is virtually always a down month for that series. This year the the month to month decline as 5.7%. That is bad. Last April the drop was only 2.7%. In April 2010 the decline was 1.6%. Even in the pits of the depression in April of 2008 and 2009, the numbers were only down by 2.2% and 0.2% respectively. The average decline for April for the past 10 years was 2.1%. Any way you slice it, this was a really bad number, far more recession-like than like a recovery.


[The Fed is] likely to engage in yet more money printing if the economy should begin to shrink. That will be another signal for stocks to rally and the stop-start ratcheting of the economy and the markets will go on. Eventually the Fed will lose control on one of those cycles. We'll know when eventually is at the time, when it becomes apparent that the pumping no longer works, or else it resolves into an extreme inflationary spiral. Either way, it won't end well.

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