A bit of a nitty gritty analysis but here's the upshot:

... it appears that the CDS data confirms what we suspected: (1) A large (~$120bn) tail-risk tranche credit hedge was placed. (2) The hedging of that hedge became very onerous but surprisingly profitable as markets rallied day after day with no give-back. (3) This led to a greedy trader lifting some of the original tranche and leaving himself much more 'naked long' to the market into LTRO2 - which marked the top. Losses escalated through April (~$2.5bn or so).

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