McAvity: The flock of black swans driving gold

This is the view of Deliberations on World Markets Author, Ian McAvity, who maintains " the Continuous Commodity Index peaked in early 2011 and [commodities] have been declining and will continue declining - that's in a sense what the stock markets have been reflecting."

But, he says, gold is increasingly trading like a currency at the moment, a behaviour that is amplified by the fact that the speculative money has now largely been chased out of the gold market.

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"What you've seen over the last couple of years is a lot of the newly wealthy emerging countries quietly accumulating gold... I think a lot of people are converting paper - not just euros but also US dollars into tangibles and doing it quietly. Nobody advertises what they're buying until after they've bought it."

As a result of this and a multitude of other factors, McAvity, believes that gold is unlikely to trade much below $1500 but, he says, "I still think that we're going to have events - various black swans unfolding over the course of the year that will have the gold price up to $2500 sometime by year end."

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"If a European bank blows up, that problem will cross the Atlantic in a Nano-second because the Federal Reserve was bailing out some of the European banks in 2008-2009 and they'll be doing it again. So we're still pretty much in the same mess and it comes down to one very simple question - how can you borrow your way out of a debt problem... and that's what they've been trying to do."