2012-07-12proactiveinvestors.co.uk

A team from Capital Economics, led by Roger Bootle, has won the Wolfson Economics Prize 2012. The Prize, which is the second-biggest award to an economist after the Nobel Prize, sought to find the best answer to the question: "If member states leave the Economic and Monetary Union, what is the best way for the economic process to be managed to provide the soundest foundation for the future growth and prosperity of the current membership?"...

We reckon that if any or all of the weaker members of the euro-zone left, their currencies would depreciate by something like 30-50%. This would probably add about 10% to consumer prices, which, spread over two years, would cause the annual rate of inflation to rise by roughly half this figure. But international experience suggests that such a spike can be short-lived and inflation can then return to something like its previous level.

Just before departure, some form of capital controls will be essential, including at least closure of the banks. But after departure, capital controls should be avoided and, if used, should be withdrawn as soon as possible.

My view - This is a sensible programme, designed to prevent a disorderly exit from the euro. However, because such an event will be anticipated, with odds heavily favouring Greece to be first in the queue, what looks straightforward on paper is likely to be considerably more difficult in implementation.''



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