2012-08-18 — blogspot.com
If Germany leaves, Deutschemark will soar and the euro will plunge. Moreover, if Spain and Italy leave in a disorderly fashion there might easily be a currency crisis of some sort, also forcing the euro lower.
...
Right now, the market seems to be prepared for the "Grexit" and it does appear that Greece will leave in a somewhat- orderly fashion. Should Greece leave without causing a mess, the markets are likely to take that as a positive for the euro over the short-to-intermediate-term.
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