2012-08-18 — blogspot.com
If Germany leaves, Deutschemark will soar and the euro will plunge. Moreover, if Spain and Italy leave in a disorderly fashion there might easily be a currency crisis of some sort, also forcing the euro lower.
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Right now, the market seems to be prepared for the "Grexit" and it does appear that Greece will leave in a somewhat- orderly fashion. Should Greece leave without causing a mess, the markets are likely to take that as a positive for the euro over the short-to-intermediate-term.
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