How a Plan to Help Stockton, Calif., Pay Pensions Backfired

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After reviewing an analysis of the bond deal, underwritten by the ill-fated investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and watching a recording of the Stockton City Council meeting where Lehman bankers pitched the deal, Mr. Michael concluded that "Stockton is entitled to some relief, due to deceptive and misleading sales practices that understated the risk."

"Lehman Brothers just didn't disclose all the risks of the transaction," he said. "Their product didn't work, in the same way as if they had built a marina for the city and then the marina collapsed."

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Since virtually all pension obligation bonds turn on the same basic strategy that Stockton followed, Mr. Michael's research could be a road map for avoiding more such problems, or perhaps for seeking redress. His analysis was part of his August economic forecast for the region, which he prepares as director of the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific.

There are about $64 billion in pension obligation bonds outstanding, and even though issuance has slowed, more of the bonds are coming to market, even now.