ML-Implode News - Doug Noland

Various reports claim the strong market reaction to Bernanke's policy statement caught the Fed by surprise. Despite attempts by various officials to calm the markets, bond yields have just kept rising. As such, it's now reasonable to suggest the Fed did not anticipate being on the wrong side of a spike in market yields. How much higher do Treasury bond and MBS yields need to rise before the Fed is held to account - and forced to explain - the large losses suffered in its $3.4 TN (and ballooning) portfolio? At this point, the Federal Reserve is akin to a novice trader that keeps adding to a losing position.
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Market players have surely been stunned by how poorly the bond market has traded -- especially with the Fed providing $85bn of monthly support. Assuming the Fed cannot keep purchasing Treasuries and MBS forever, perhaps there is now added impetus for investors, hedge funds, foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and others to push liquidations forward. If money managers now realize they are holding higher risk exposures than desired, it might be advantageous to make necessary portfolio adjustments prior to the Fed winding down its QE operations.

Relevant:

Doug Noland - Mispricing Risk