2013-12-09hussmanfunds.com

``Among the litany of other classic features of a speculative bull market peak, margin debt on the NYSE has surged to the highest level in history, and at nearly 2.5% of GDP, exceeds all but two months in 2000 and 2007. The amount being borrowed to buy stocks on margin is now 26% the size of all commercial and industrial loans in the entire U.S. banking sector. As low-quality, high-risk borrowers rush to take advantage of the present speculative appetite, issuance of leveraged loans (particularly the junkier "covenant-lite" forms) has now hit a record high, already eclipsing the previous record in 2007 at the height of pre-crisis yield-seeking. New equity issuance is also running at the fastest pace since any point except the 2000 bubble peak. At the same time, Bloomberg reports that investors are plowing more into stock mutual funds than at any point since the 2000 bubble peak. Keep in mind how this works - every buyer is matched with a seller in equilibrium, so the same amount of stock is being sold by institutions and other non-retail investors. One doesn't need to think long to answer who is likely to be the "smart money" in this trade, as the history of surges in retail participation provides a rather firm answer to that question.''


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