``The headline surplus will be 7pc of GDP this year, well above the 6pc limit set by Brussels the under the EU's new Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The Commission caused fury in Germany last year by threatening Berlin with sanctions if it failed to do its "homework", chiefly by taking steps to wean its economy off reliance on foreign markets. The issue is highly sensitive for Mr Juncker. He must choose whether to set the sanctions machinery in motions and provoke a showdown with Germany -- the country that pushed hardest for his nomination -- or turn a blind eye and risk the accusation that EMU rules are enforced only against the weaker countries.''

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