The Global Economy's Groundhog Day

``Consider the mid-year update of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook, which has told the same story every year since 2011: "Oops! The world economy did not perform as well as we expected." The reports go on to blame unanticipated factors -- such as the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan, uncertainty about America's exit from expansionary monetary policy, a "one-time" re-pricing of risk, and severe weather in the United States -- for the inaccuracies. Emphasizing the temporary nature of these factors, the reports insist that, though world GDP growth amounted to roughly 3% during the first half of the year, it will pick up in the second half. Driven by this new momentum, growth will finally reach the long-elusive 4% rate next year. When it does not, the IMF publishes another rendition of the same claims.''