Singapore is flashing clear warning signs. The city-state's gross domestic product plunged 4.6 percent last quarter, a downturn almost certainly triggered by China. Singapore's plight may mark a dangerous inflection point not just for Asia, but for the entire global economy.


Shanghai's day traders celebrated this week's news that Chinese exports rose 2.1 percent in June. The more interesting figure, though, was the 6.7 percent decline in Chinese imports. That helps explain the stunning 14 percent drop in Singaporean manufacturing from the previous three months.


Beijing's troubles are now the world's. In 2010, it accounted for roughly 23 percent of global growth. By the end of 2014, that share had surged to at least 38 percent. China punches even further above its weight in the commodity markets that countries from Indonesia to South Africa rely on for growth. "Over the next couple of years," Sharma told Bloomberg News, "China is likely to be the biggest source of vulnerability for the global economy."

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