Hussman: From the Risk to the Guarded Expectation of Recession

``Last week brought another development matching what we observed both in 2000 and 2007. In addition to anticipating the market collapses that followed those extremes, I am among the few economists who correctly warned of oncoming recessions in October 2000 and again in November 2007 - both points where the consensus of economic forecasters indicated no expectation of oncoming trouble at all. In both instances, the earliest signal of economic trouble came from our Recession Warning Composite, coupled with deterioration in broad market internals... recession is now [our] base case.''