2016-01-04bloombergview.com

This "20 percent world" is going to set the tone in democracies on both sides of the Atlantic -- not least because, as anybody who bets on horse racing will tell you, eventually one of these longshots is going to canter home.  Start with President Donald Trump. Gamblers, who have been much better at predicting political results than pollsters, currently put the odds of the hard-to-pin-down-but-generally-right-wing billionaire reaching the White House at around 6-1, or 17 percent.

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And it's not just "wacko" candidates; some unthinkable events are also distinctly possible. This year, perhaps as early as June, Britain may vote to leave the European Union. Bookmakers still expect the country to go for the status quo, though most pundits are less certain about this than they were about the Scottish referendum in 2014, which turned out to be an uncomfortably close race for the British establishment.



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