2016-04-09theguardian.com

A perfect storm is brewing and it could take Britain out of the European Union. Right now it's hard to see what, or who, will thwart that scenario. For months I thought Brexit was unlikely...

To seriously contemplate Brexit is almost a taboo -- there's a great deal of comment, but few see it as a reality. Officials in other European states refrain from making open statements: partly for fear of negatively influencing the referendum, but mostly because they are in denial. A friend at the EU commission recently told me that its staff are banned from organising any meetings to discuss the possible effects of Brexit, in case it leaks and EU institutions appear defeatist. This amounts to sticking heads in the sand.

With less than 11 weeks to the vote, the reasons things are going wrong are easy to list. David Cameron, the British prime minister, is now politically weakened by the Panama Papers fallout. Like it or not, his personal credibility affects the credibility of his message on Europe. The Dutch referendum result this week has brought added ammunition to the Brexit campaign. Nigel Farage was swift to tweet: "big No to EU. Hooray!"



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