Olivier Blanchard eyes ugly 'end game' for Japan on debt spiral

Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said zero interest rates have disguised the underlying danger posed by Japan's public debt, likely to reach 250pc of GDP this year and spiralling upwards on an unsustainable trajectory.

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"If and when US hedge funds become the marginal Japanese debt, they are going to ask for a substantial spread," he told the Telegraph, speaking at the Ambrosetti forum of world policy-makers on Lake Como.

Analysts say this would transform the country's debt dynamics and kill the illusion of solvency, possibly in a sudden, non-linear fashion.

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Prof Blanchard, now at the Peterson Institute in Washington, said the Bank of Japan will come under mounting political pressure to fund the budget directly, at which point the country risks lurching from deflation to an inflationary denouement.

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The worry is what will happen in the next global downturn -- or when the effects of cheap oil and quantitative easing fade -- given that public finances are already so stretched.