2016-05-23independent.co.uk

The fact that current policies have not led to a recovery after six years suggests that they are ineffective. A general lack of demand combined with demographics, slower improvements in productivity, reduced rates of innovation, resource constraints, environmental factors and rising inequality is likely to constrain growth. Overcapacity, technological improvements, competitive devaluations and a lack of pricing power is likely to keep inflation low, despite loose monetary conditions.

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The final scenario is the mother of all crashes. Financial system failures occur as a significant number of sovereigns, corporate and households are unable to service their debt. Defaults trigger problems in the banking system which leads to a major liquidity contraction, which in turn feeds back into real economic activity.

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Some historians view World War II as a continuation of World War I with an interval. Any new crisis is likely to be a further phase of the 2008 crisis, reflecting the fact that the causes remain largely unresolved. But a future downturn will exacerbated by several factors.



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