2016-06-03bloomberg.com

Mario Draghi's insistence that his stimulus program is only half done brings with it a worrying thought. What if its best effects are already spent anyway?... While Draghi's remarks suggest the next major calendar point for the ECB's assessment of its stimulus will be September -- after the release of economic-growth data and coinciding with its fresh forecasts -- the omens so far are weak. Yet another report of negative consumer prices this week underscored the challenge of revitalizing an economy fatigued by years of debt crises and delayed reforms, and battered by global forces beyond the ECB's control.

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"We're getting to the point of radically diminishing effectiveness of these interventions," Andrew Balls, Pimco's global fixed income chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg Television. "If we get a recession, which is perfectly plausible over the next three to five years, there's a real question in terms of how policy makers can respond."

... the institution's newest economic forecasts, which include the effect of the latest round of stimulus for the first time, show the inflation goal isn't any nearer. The latest outlook is that consumer-price growth will average 1.6 percent in 2018, significantly short of the target of just under 2 percent.



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