2016-11-18cnbc.com

Societe Generale's resident uber-bear, Albert Edwards, says the very long economic recovery underway in the U.S. is gearing up to suffer a "very traditional death" as consumption will likely crumble under rapidly stepped-up inflation and tighter monetary conditions next year.

In Edwards' own words, "Even if the Fed refuses to tighten, monetary conditions will tighten dramatically anyway as bond yields and the dollar surge, exacerbating the profits recession."

"The surge in headline inflation from zero to 2.5 percent-3 percent in Q1 next year is likely to crush consumption," he continued, adding, "The expected expansion of the fiscal deficit under Trump will not prevent this happening in 2017 as it will come too late -- in 2018/19."

Of course, as the article points out, AE has been predicting a recession almost every year since 2012 -- but that may just mean that the Fed has continued to forestall one with unexpected continuation of ZIRP...



Comments: Be the first to add a comment

add a comment | go to forum thread