2016-11-21wolfstreet.com

The Miami-Dade County condo market is coming under severe stress, and turmoil is spreading. There are two aspects: supply and sales activity overall, and the more obscure but highly indicative "preconstruction market.''

...only 47 [preconstruction] resales have actually occurred over the last six months. This makes for a supply of 112 months, or nearly a decade, at the current sales rate... Of those 47 sales, 43% produced net losses after commissions. Now even more flippers are willing to take a loss: 70 units have been listed with underwater asking prices, up from 44 on August 1 and from 14 on May 1....

And it will spread from there: These losses are establishing a down-trend in the "comparable sales" data -- the Holy Grail by which the industry values properties -- which will depress future asking and sales prices further.

Just then, new supply will flood the market. Over the next 24 months, another 10,328 units at large developments are scheduled to be completed.



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