Fillon Scandal Injects Uncertainty into French Elections -- Can Anyone Stop Le Pen?

Now the slate of contenders, with or without Fillon, has completely changed and is considerably more exciting than what had been anticipated only a few short weeks ago. France's third most popular sport behind football and rugby -- that of calculating the probability of every possible (and impossible) post-election coalition -- has begun filling myriad columns and television programs.

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Now, even if Fillon survives as a candidate, he will be so damaged that he has virtually no chance of winning. Last week, in fact, his own party began discussing a "Plan B" so openly that it was almost disrespectful. Juppé is one possible replacement candidate being discussed, but the names of some young conservatives have also been circulating. Regardless, none of these alternatives would be as capable of taking voters away from Marine Le Pen and her project "Marine 2017" as the pre-scandal Fillon would have been.

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Still, it remains unlikely that Marine Le Pen will become France's president. The polls may show her making it into the second round of voting, but once there, the current data also shows that she would likely be defeated by an opposing candidate, no matter who it is. At the moment, for example, polls show Macron getting 65 percent of votes in a run-off against Le Pen. One of the certainties you can rely on in France is that Le Pen is constantly seen as the greater of two evils.