The multi-family segment has been a drag on the construction sector for several years now, despite the occasional spike up in either permits or starts, or both... [But] according the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), they have been over the past few months rarely ever more confident than now. You have to go back to the late nineties for similar expressed levels of optimism; the NAHB's index suggests that its members are more positive now than at any time during the housing mania.


The problem with that result is obvious; they aren't building at a rate anywhere close to either the nineties or the height of the bubble. On a population-adjusted basis, the disparity is even greater.


[The lack of] growth in household formation may not threaten to reverse the low-growth in home construction, but it sure does explain why more homes aren't being built. There is no additional demand above what appears to be minimal growth in home stock (which also helps explain the pullback in apartment construction around the "rising dollar" downturn; that it confirmed there isn't likely to ever be more than minimal growth).


There are any number of surveys particularly of young adults describing the restlessness of this situation, and therefore if those stuck in it had the means they would change their circumstances if possible. In droves. It can be construed as a social trend, but it's often done so because by and large in the mainstream there isn't an economic problem according to Economists.

Maybe that in the end is what builders are so happy about. They see only a very small probability of a substantial decrease in their business while at the same time noting that any day now young Americans in light of full employment will start to move out of their parents' basement all at once. Like other similar rationalizations, the longer it goes where that hasn't happened, the more certain they have become that it will -- tomorrow for sure.

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