Trump Besting Obama on Economy? Not So Fast

Our chart tracks rolling nine-quarter periods over the recent expansion--more of an apples-to-apples comparison. If there were no nine-quarter period under Obama when growth averaged as high as 2.7%, the GDP cup would go to Trump. But as the chart shows, that isn't the case. There were two nine-quarter periods -- through second quarter 2015 and second quarter 2016, respectively -- when growth equaled 2.7%, And there were two others -- through first quarter 2015 and third quarter 2015 -- when growth did a tenth of a percentage point better, at 2.8%. So in this contest, we have to give the edge to Obama.

Also, there was a huge government contribution to GDP growth in this year's second quarter. That brings up another comparison, to the detriment of Trump's relative performance.

Excluding the government contribution, private sector GDP growth in the second quarter ran just 1.3%. And over the just-ended nine quarters, private sector growth averaged 2.3% -- a figure that has been equaled or bested more than 10 different times under Obama. Ironically, the president who complained about the "waste, fraud, and abuse" of government spending has benefitted far more than his predecessor from government's contribution to GDP growth.