2008-11-06ft.com

... it appears that the US Federal Reserve has given up on the idea of easing stress on interbank and wholesale lending and is resigned to being the central bank-come-market-maker of last, first and every resort... Ben Bernanke knows this scenario. It’s not been admitted yet, but it’s looking very much like a liquidity trap. Rates on T-bills are already precipitously close to zero.

...

At its core, the Bernanke Twist is a direct effort to try and support prices; to stop destructive debt deflation. We are in uncharted territory though. The Fed is not just trying to game the market in US government debt. It’s trying to support the entire asset-backed debt market.

Which is particularly risky when the the Fed is effectively supporting those prices by positioning itself as a risk sump.

No wonder, as Krugman says, Fed officials are “nervous”. This is an all-out gamble.

Scary.



Comments:

tvsterling at 18:51 2008-11-08 said:
From this article (which mentions grave dangers of deflation) & others which raise the specter of runaway inflation we can invoke the ever trendy chaos theory. When a system enters a chaotic state there is literally no telling where it will land. What does happen every time is that order always emerges spontaneously from chaos. Think of it as the invisible hand of God. It's not so much a question of who is right. The whole process is a sort of cosmic coin flip. The only winners will be the Supersuits since they can always quote Chaos as the culprit (kind of like Maxwell Smart). The only sure loser is the American Taxpayer since he will have to ride it out without any free billion dollars. He will however, have to chip in his meager bit to provide some Limolizard with his rightful Billion. Permalink

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