Where Are We On The Recession-o-Meter?

...

The indicators above are among the most common inputs into the formal models that economists use to forecast recessions. But many economists have a favorite indicator (or maybe a couple) that they also watch as a gut check.

...

Auto sales: After houses, cars are the most expensive thing most families buy. And while owning a car is effectively required in large parts of the country, buying a new one almost never is. So when new car sales are strong, it's a sign consumers are feeling good. Retail car sales have typically peaked before recessions, then dropped sharply once one began. So it isn't a great sign that sales are falling.