A divided Western front is playing into Putin's endgame; possible German-brokered deal

If the reports carried on Russian news services are accurate, it's a deal -- while theoretically based on the concept of the territorial integrity of Ukraine -- that offers the Kremlin much of what it is believed to be seeking in Ukraine: primarily a "frozen conflict" in the Donbass. That would protect Russian influence over that region, and by extension over Kiev.

The idea of Ukraine ever joining NATO is banished for as long as the conflict remains on ice, and Russia has managed to freeze similar conflicts in Moldova and Georgia for two decades and counting. Russia is also believed to be demanding that the government in Kiev continue to fund social services in Donetsk and Lugansk, even if those regions would be left effectively outside the Ukrainian government's control.

Europe, anxious to get its own economy restarted, could be expected to start lowering sanctions against Russia at the first signs of compliance from Moscow. Meanwhile, no one seems to be talking about Crimea any more.