2017-01-10wsj.com

"The economic elite did many things to undermine their credibility while people's economic fortunes were taking a turn for the worse," said Steven Davis, an economist at the University of Chicago. But a road map for regaining trust is elusive. "I used to think facts and analysis will ultimately carry the day but now I'm not quite sure."

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Surveys from the Pew Research Center have documented dwindling support for free trade. In 2014, 60% of Democratic voters and 55% of Republican voters supported such trade agreements. In an October survey, however, support among Democrats had fallen to 56% and support among Republicans had nose-dived to 24%.

Over a billion people moved out of poverty in developing countries in the last 25 years, lifted in part by global trade and other economic prescriptions, but those same policies created winners and losers in the West. Another Pew study last year compared views of whether it was good for the U.S. to be so involved in the global economy: 86% of scholars said it was good, and just 2% bad. Among the general public, 49% thought it was bad, and just 44% good.

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The profession sees its successes as overlooked--the U.S. is wealthier than ever. The unemployment rate is below 5%. Challenges facing those who enjoyed little economic gain in recent years are among the topics economists are trying to diagnose and the subject of dozens of papers at this year's conference.

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Mr. Phelps said that neither the economic policies of Mr. Trump nor the left "can be expected to revitalize the West since neither serves to stimulate the business innovation that is essential for rapid economic growth."

... the profession may have brought this on itself, said Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia professor and Nobel winner. Anger among voters was to be expected, because globalization in particular was sold in part with broken promises.

"The promise was that globalization, together with liberalization, lowering tax rates, and advances in technology, would make everyone better off," said Mr. Stiglitz. It was economists, not the economics, that over-promised, he said.

"In many ways, economic science was more honest," he said, referring to the fact that some would win but others could lose from free trade. "It only said that under certain conditions winners could compensate losers, not that they would."''



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