2016-07-31bloomberg.com

The dollar is set to fall 5 percent in the next few months, the Federal Reserve isn't raising interest rates anytime soon and U.S. economic data is only going to get worse. That's what Morgan Stanley chief global currency strategist Hans Redeker told clients in a note published Thursday, citing in-house indicators showing U.S. domestic demand is set to fade in the coming months.

...

"We are quite pessimistic about, first, the outcome of the U.S. economy," Redeker said in an interview on Bloomberg Television Friday, before the GDP report's release. "When you look at our internal indicators, which capture domestic demand very well, they are suggesting that the demand strength is going to fade from here."

The greenback had rallied in recent weeks on mounting speculation the Fed will hike rates in the coming months following better-than-expected data on jobs, retail sales and industrial production. Dollar bulls' hopes were dampened Wednesday after a lukewarm policy statement from Fed officials that signaled only a gradual pace towards tighter monetary policy. They were dashed after Friday's GDP print, which showed a 1.2 percent annualized increase in the April-June period, less than the 2.5 percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Internal indicators?! What, you guys don't trust the Fed and BLS?! But massaged data is superior data -- I mean, who doesn't like massages?!



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